CDC VICTORY—A CAUSE TO CELEBRATE OR SOBER REFLECTION

By Edward William Carter, Jr.

There is a growing euphoria amongst the supporters and sympathizers of George Weah’s Congress for Democratic Change (CDC) over their recent victory in the Montserrado County Senatorial By-Election.

As is expected in the aftermath of such grueling political dual, the CDC is emboldened and is eying the 2021 Presidential Contest with heightened optimism. In fact, some supporters and political pundits are already predicting a big win for CDC in 2012. They argued that the Montserrado Poll is a litmus test for the 2012 Election. In their estimation, the CDC victory is a referendum on Ellen Sirleaf’s Unity Party.

Though spurious, this prediction seems to be gaining traction; however, statistics from the by-election negates this claim, hence, from a cost-benefit analysis, the result that emanated from the recent poll, portents problem for both parties going forward. Evidence to support this postulation is legion: From the get-go, the CDC traditional base appeared sufficiently energized and galvanized, and was widely speculated to pull an astounding victory. Therefore, the party’s victory comes at no surprise. What is surprising though, is the fact that even though the part base was mobilized to its peak, the turn out of their supporters was rather disappointing, to say the least.

Suffice it to say that the same amount of voters that voted for the party senatorial candidate during the first round of balloting, was the same amount that voted in the run off. This trend points to the fact that support for the CDC is dwindling, and the milieu of "cleavage politics," (the genre of constituents’ politics advantageous to the CDC is dissipating). This shift in attitude on the part of the CDC’s loyal base reveals a thawing of those socio-political and economic cleavages that propel voters to gravitate towards the party.

Besides, from the result of the poll, it is cleared that the Liberian electors are opting for substance over style. This presupposes the fact that if the CDC is to become a factor in the 2012 Election, it must ‘refashion its image from a "protest party," (a party whose leaders are typically populist, but inexperienced with their activists operating on the margin of the laws), to a full-fledged altruistic political entity with a manifesto that appeals to all spectrum of the voting populace. They must provide evidence that their party offers the best opportunity for Liberia’s future and that they are prepared to assume the mantle of leadership if and when the opportunity avails itself. But for now, this seems to be a tall-order for the party, because its message does not appear to connect with the realities of post-conflict Liberia

Conversely, the by-election result should be a sobering moment for the Unity party. The Party supporters have sent a clear and unambiguous message for a reversal of the current trend. There appears to be a growing apathy on the part of the Unity party supporters, who are "dealigning" with their party. The recent decision to boycott the by-election clearly shows the level of disillusionment and disenchantment amongst the supporters of Unity Party over some policies of the Government. The message to the party leaders is clear: recalibrate your policies of face some unpredictable consequences comes 2012.